InDex Pharmaceuticals: The countdown has begun

Research Update

2017-07-07

08:28

The first patient has been included in the Phase IIb CONDUCT study. CONDUCT is a placebo-controlled, five-armed, multi-dose and multi-center study. 90 clinics in 12 European nations will be recruiting patients with moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis. The study’s goal is to find the dosing at which cobitolimod shows the best efficacy, and will give a potential partner the data needed for evaluating the project. Recruitment should take up to 18 months and with data readout about 3 months after last patient in, results are expected around year-end 2018/19. Compared to previous studies with cobitolimod, CONDUCT is designed with higher and more frequent dosing, readout of the primary endpoint closer to last treatment, and a stricter protocol. Together with available data from 250 patients we believe this give cobitolimod a high likelihood of success in CONDUCT. However, the shares have traded down since the IPO in late 2016. Current price suggest depressed expectations for the future. With data readout by year-end 2018/19 and a big potential upside we argue that current levels offer a chance to lock in a cheap stock with asymmetrical risk-reward. Our valuation gives a Base Case of SEK 14 per share. Our Bull and Bear Case gives SEK 24 and 4, respectively. NOTE! This is a translation of the original report in Swedish, published 2017-07-05.

MS

Mathias Spinnars

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