FPC previously estimated a smartphone TAM of 950 million units and rapidly increasing penetration. The 2017 outcome was instead 700 million and slow growth ahead, possibly due to Face ID but who knows? As a result, FPC now cuts OPEX by SEKm 360 - a major challenge in an innovate-or-die-industry. We find the market forecasts of 50 million cards for 2018 unrealistic as e.g. FPC’s report uttered the magic words “will take time”. Nevertheless, 2018 is very interesting as it may reveal the winner in smart cards. If FPC turns out on top but the market at the same time is disappointed with the initial volumes it could provide an interesting opportunity. The changed market conditions in smartphones lead to a new base case of SEK 12 (SEK 24) as well as a bear case of SEK 7 (10) and a bull case of SEK 25 (48).