Moberg Pharma: The next phase has started

Research Update

2016-10-12

07:29

In Europe and North America, patient enrollment has commenced for two Phase III studies of MOB-015. We expect patient recruitment will continue for about nine months and then be followed up for 52 weeks, enabling top-line data in 2H18. This is in-line with our expectations and a positive outcome would pave the way for a regulatory filing in 2019 and a possible launch in 2020. Now that the first patients have initiated treatment, we raise the probability for reaching the market from 60 percent to 70 percent. The financial outcome for the second quarter was weaker than we had expected. We nonetheless expect growth to improve in the second half of 2016, supported by recently acquired brands and the roll-out of Kerasal Nail to additional markets in Asia. We raise our fair value in the base case scenario to SEK 74 (70). In the coming months, the most important catalyst for the stock will be continuing to display solid performance in the OTC-business.

KP

Klas Palin

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