OPUS

Opus Group

Research update

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Opus Group: Significantly raising the bar

There is certainly nothing wrong with the level of ambition in the company’s newly launched growth plan for 2017-21. Sales are to double and the EBITDA margin is to rise to 25%, compared with 20% in full-year 2016. The new CEO will be Lothar Geilen, which is hardly surprising given that he has been in charge of the entire group’s vehicle inspection business for several years.
Q4 was this time a little weaker than we anticipated. Revenue rose 5% Y/Y (our forecast: 12%) and EBITDA rose 16% to SEK 68m. However, we expected more from both reporting segments.
The new growth plan does not appear unrealistic, but will have to take clearer shape before we start including it in our forecasts. Our forecasts, assumptions and valuation (Base Case SEK 10.2 per share) are largely unchanged. However, a Bull Case based on success for the five-year plan provides significant valuation potential up to SEK 15 per share. (This is an English version of our Q4-update published earlier on February 16, 2017.)

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