Stillfront Group

Research note


Stillfront Group: User statistics for Q3, a little below expectations

Today Stillfront released their user statistics for Q3. The MAU (Monthly Active Users) amounted to roughly 4.1 million and DAU (Daily Active Users) came in at 0.95 million. Year over year (proforma basis) the MAU grew by 15% and dropped 3% compared to Q2’18. We had modeled a steeper increase. However, we have been relatively conservative regarding monetization, so they cancel each other out somewhat. We will present updated quarterly projections prior to the release of the Q3 report.

We expected to see MAU figures of about 4.76 million, driven by the high UAC (User Acquisition Cost) within Big Farm during Q2 and overall increased marketing investments. The MAU decreased compared to Q2 by roughly 3%. The lower MAU up-take could signal that the company has held back on UAC, which can create a higher margin then we have projected. The DAU/MAU was strong, and in line with the figures, we saw during Q2, as such the monetization has also likely been good during the quarter. A high monetization rate will make up for a lower MAU figure as we modeled relatively conservative monetization rates.

We will update our projections before the release of the Q3 report. Today our net sales projection amounts to SEK 337m, which corresponds to a quarter over quarter growth of 2%. At first glance, we believe that we will make top-line adjustments in the range of 5-10% for Q3. The effect on the profit levels will most likely be lower. We do not draw any larger conclusion based on the user's stats and want to see the figures in full before we make any larger adjustments regarding our full-year projections or valuation.

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