Smart Eye Q2’20: The Crowning
Redeye Research Note 2020/08/26
Q2 sales came in at SEK 14m as expected. The operating loss amounted to SEK -23m, compared to our expected -17m, the difference likely being in a lower furloughing ratio than we estimated.
From the Q2 report, we especially note the statement that the interest of customers is at least as strong as prior to the pandemic, and that the aggressive investments in DMS continue at the same pace as before.
Smart Eye sounds very satisfied with the outcome of the first round of procurements and says the second wave is on its way with only minor delays from corona. “Without anticipating the results of the next round of procurements, we can say that it continues to look very promising” In our view, this statement suggests that there is at least one deal won by a partner to be announced by Smart Eye during the coming months. We have reason to believe that at least two major procurements were finalized and won by tier-1s during Q2. In our view, virtually the whole market and the future market shares have now been completely settled. Now that all smoke has cleared, we find it unlikely that the market leader of DMS would be a company where insiders still only hold about 0.5% of total shares outstanding, as in the case of main competitor Seeing Machines.
We raise our long-term sales assumptions and our fair value range. Our Base case jumps to SEK 193 per share (160). Our new bear and bull case amounts to SEK 92 and 252 (77 & 212).