At this point, we do not track financial development closely as it’s of lower relevance in relation to the company’s operational timeline with verifying its solution and increasing the MoU pipeline. Azelio’s cash position amounted to SEK 417m by the end of the quarter and reasons with the current plan of an additional capital need of SEK 125m. Below we list the recent events and our current thoughts.
Our current projections
Azelio has previously announced several projects as STELLA Futura, ND Power, and HAE to be delivered in 2020. We believe they are targeting one project delivery while pushing the other over 2021. As a result, we estimate one project delivery in Q4, resulting in FY2020 sales of around SEK 2m. In terms of strategic value, we believe they will push for the Jordanian project with HAE as it represents around 65% of the MoU-pipeline for 2021 to date. With its current 2021 MoU-pipeline of 210m for FY2021, we estimate sales of 250m in 2021. The total pipeline now amounts to SEK 18.4bn. Below follows the current MoU-pipeline.
We expect a solid sales ramp-up in the coming years, breaking the SEK 1bn barrier already in 2022. The net effect of the recent news is undoubtedly positive with verification data for smaller installations and secured financing and has decreased the overall risk in the case. We further believe that increased institutional interest can drive the stock going forward as deals and actual sales are starting to materialize. Based on the solid financial outlook further sparred by, in our view, solid management and strong business case, we argue for a base case valuation around SEK 30 per share. Our fair value range remains intact at SEK 10 per share in a bear case scenario, while in our bull case SEK 45.
Below are our current estimates;
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