Redeye updates valuation and estimates on Better Collective following its Q3-results which was slightly lower than expected while the start to Q4 was strong and the full year guidance was reiterated. Still, we trim our estimates for 2023-24E due to the accelerated transition towards more revenue-share-based contracts. Our valuation range is lowered which is also impacted by higher risk-free interest rate assumptions.
HA
DF
Hjalmar Ahlberg
Douglas Forsling
Slightly soft Q3-result
Better Collective's Q3-result came in slightly soft with an EBITDA of EUR14.6m compared to our forecast of EUR17.4m. The main deviation was lower revenue in US which was impacted negatively in the short term due to the transaction from CPA contracts to revenue-share contracts. On the positive side, the company saw strong growth of 73% in revenue-share-based income while the intake of NDC's based on revenue-share contracts increased 101% YoY.
Solid start to Q4 and reiterated guidance
While the Q3-result was somewhat below our expectations, the start to Q4 was strong with EUR26m of revenue in October representing organic growth of 35%. With a continued positive seasonality for the rest of Q4 coupled with the FIFA World Cup the outlook for the rest of the year remains strong. The company also reiterates its target for the year (organic growth of 20-30% and EBITDA of around EUR85m) which also implies a strong end-of-year performance.
Limited changes for 2022E, trimmed 2023-24E estimates
All in all, we make limited changes to our 2022 estimates while trim our 2023-24E EBITDA with 5% as we take height for some additional impact from the transition from CPA to revenue-share based contract in the US. We have also increased our risk-free rate assumptions which lower our valuation range and our new base case stands at SEK270 (SEK300).
EURm | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Revenues | 91 | 177 | 263 | 299 | 342 |
Revenue Growth | 35% | 94% | 48% | 14% | 14% |
EBITDA | 38 | 56 | 83 | 101 | 119 |
EBITDA Margin | 42% | 32% | 31% | 34% | 35% |
EBIT | 30 | 45 | 68 | 85 | 103 |
Net Income | 22 | 17 | 48 | 62 | 77 |
EV/EBITDA | 19.4 | 20.5 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 6.4 |
EV/EBIT | 24.4 | 25.1 | 13.1 | 9.9 | 7.4 |
P/E | 31.8 | 30.8 | 14.8 | 11.9 | 9.6 |
Slightly soft Q3-results

Solid outlook and reiterated guidance

Building for stable growth

Operating leverage supports margin improvement in 2023-24E

Slightly trimmed estimates

Key financials 2019-24E

Valuation
Bear case SEK150 | Base case SEK270 | Bull case SEK400 |
Our bear case assumes a higher number of competitors and higher investment needs to maintain and update products that impact profitability negatively. | Our base case scenario assumes solid growth in all markets with stable profitability and a stable competitive landscape. | Our bull case scenario assumes strong growth driven by the US and other new markets and an expanding margin on the back of scalability. |
Average sales growth of about 8% between 2023-27 with EBITDA-margin of 30%. | Average sales growth of about 13% between 2023-27 with stable EBITDA-margin of c. 35%. | Average sales growth of about 16% between 2023-27 with gradually expanding EBIT-margin to c. 38%. |
Terminal growth of 2% with terminal EBITDA-margin of 25%. | Terminal growth of 2% with terminal EBITDA-margin of 30%. | Terminal growth of 2% with terminal EBITDA-margin of 33%. |
Valuation and estimate trend

Investment thesis
Case
Profitable growth supported by booming US sports betting market
Evidence
Solid track record by owner operated management team
Challenge
High growth in US will drive increased competition
Valuation
Base case DCF driven by US growth – implies valuation in higher end of historic EV/EBITDA range
Summary Redeye Ratings
The rating consists of three valuation keys, each consituting an overall assesment of several factors that are rated on a scale of 0 to 1 points. The maximum score for a valuation key is 5 points.
People: 4
We regard management as capable, with notable industry experience. Impressively, Jesper Søgaard and Christian Kirk Rasmussen have taken Better Collective from a single site to the world’s leading sports betting affiliate. However, board members average a relatively short history with the company. The founders, who are also part of top management, hold the majority of the shares. We consider this positive as this creates long-term alignment with shareholders. Chairman of the board Jens Bager holds over 2%, while several other board members and the CFO also have significant shareholdings. This strengthens the ownership structure further. Moreover, Better Collective has several institutional investors among its largest owners, which we view as a further stamp of quality.
Business: 3
The bulk of sales are generated from regulated markets, which mitigates regulatory risk. The US market and several large South American markets offers a large potential for Better Collective, as they are being regulated. The operations are also highly scalable, and the gross margin is above 60%, including Paid Media. Better Collective’s community sites create network effects and barriers against new competitors. Moreover, much of the sites’ traffic is direct, leading to low dependence on Google and expensive paid media compared to peers. On the negative side, Better Collective is still exposed to regulatory risks and potential margin pressure. Furthermore, despite its rapid growth pace Better Collective still has strong EBIT margin of above 30% with strong cash flow.
Financials: 3
Better Collective is a very active and successful industry consolidator with several acquisitions carried through in the last years. While this can increase leverage in the short term the company’s strong cash generation means this quickly improves and opens for further growth by acquisitions.
Income Statement
Income statement | |||||
EURm | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Revenues | 91 | 177 | 263 | 299 | 342 |
Cost of Revenue | 20 | 65 | 88 | 97 | 111 |
Operating Expenses | 33 | 56 | 92 | 101 | 112 |
Exchange Rate Differences | - | - | - | - | - |
EBITDA | 38 | 56 | 83 | 101 | 119 |
Depreciation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Amortizations | 6 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 14 |
EBIT | 30 | 45 | 68 | 85 | 103 |
Shares in Associates | - | - | - | - | - |
Interest Expenses | 4 | 6 | 7 | 2 | - |
Net Financial Items | (2) | (3) | (3) | (2) | - |
Non Recurring Income Expense | 0.12 | (17) | (2) | - | - |
EBT | 29 | 26 | 63 | 83 | 103 |
Income Tax Expenses | 7 | 9 | 15 | 21 | 26 |
Net Income | 22 | 17 | 48 | 62 | 77 |
Balance Sheet
Balance sheet | |||||
Assets | |||||
Non-current assets | |||||
EURm | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Property, Plant and Equipment (Net) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Goodwill | 99 | 178 | 178 | 178 | 178 |
Intangible Assets | 160 | 342 | 439 | 431 | 424 |
Right-of-Use Assets | - | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Other Non-Current Assets | 2 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Total Non-Current Assets | 267 | 534 | 632 | 624 | 616 |
Current assets | |||||
EURm | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Receivable | 18 | 30 | 45 | 60 | 68 |
Other Current Assets | 9 | 4 | 13 | 30 | 34 |
Cash Equivalents | 21 | 29 | 46 | 94 | 176 |
Total Current Assets | 49 | 63 | 104 | 184 | 279 |
Total Assets | 315 | 597 | 736 | 807 | 895 |
Equity and Liabilities | |||||
Equity | |||||
EURm | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Non Controlling Interest | - | - | - | - | - |
Shareholder's Equity | 163 | 345 | 393 | 456 | 533 |
Non-current liabilities | |||||
EURm | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Long Term Debt | 69 | 121 | 196 | 196 | 196 |
Long Term Lease Liabilities | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Other Non-Current Lease Liabilities | 55 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 |
Total Non-Current Liabilities | 126 | 197 | 272 | 272 | 272 |
Current liabilities | |||||
EURm | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Short Term Debt | 0.02 | - | - | - | - |
Short Term Lease Liabilities | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Accounts Payable | 10 | 18 | 26 | 30 | 34 |
Other Current Liabilities | 15 | 36 | 43 | 48 | 55 |
Total Current Liabilities | 26 | 55 | 70 | 79 | 90 |
Total Liabilities and Equity | 315 | 597 | 736 | 807 | 895 |
Cash Flow
Cash flow | |||||
EURm | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Operating Cash Flow | 27 | 32 | 54 | 55 | 91 |
Investing Cash Flow | (68) | (219) | (112) | (7) | (9) |
Financing Cash Flow | 47 | 189 | 75 | - | - |