Orexo: Waiting for Godot

Research Update

2017-05-10

20:11

The Q1’17 report did not contain any particularly good news and the results were relatively weak, as expected. This is against a background of weak market performance by Zubsolv, which has been partly offset by accelerating growth in the underlying market. The weak market performance by Zubsolv and scarcity of news during the period have had a real impact on the shares, which have fallen by nearly 26 percent this year. Stabilisation of the declining market share and clarity on new future products is needed to start regaining investor interest and confidence. A more positive scenario would be for Orexo to also reach a settlement with Actavis in the ongoing patent disputes. We believe this has become more likely after new action against Actavis regarding an infringement of patent 996’ (recently defended in court) for their generic versions of Suboxone and Subutex. We have adjusted our estimates after the Q1'17 report, but this does not affect our valuation. Note, this is a translation of the original report which was published the 24 of April.

KP

Klas Palin

Disclosures and disclaimers

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