Research note


Saniona: Partner program moves into clinical stage, strengthen the validation of the Ion channel platform

Saniona’s partner Cadent Therapeutics have initiated phase I study with CAD-1883 for the treatment of the movement disorders spinocerebellar ataxia (SCA) and essential tremor. We provide a short comment to this press release that was announced by Saniona yesterday.

The entering of CAD-1883 into clinic was one of our catalysts (potency: minor) that we expected to happen this year. It is a positive step forward and we will raise our risk-adjusted rate (LoA) on future royalties, currently at 9%. A raise of LoA to 12% would impact our valuation in a positive way by roughly SEK 1 according to our first indications.

Other assumptions we have for the Cadent Therapeutics program are currently:

  • Launch year in 2024
  • Top Sales potential of USD 1,000 million
  • Royalty rate at 5%

We will probably give the Cadent Therapeutics program some extra attention in our next update and go through in more detail the CAD-1883 mechanism of action, our financial assumptions, and the market potential for SCA and essential tremor.

Although the Cadent Therapeutics program currently represents a rather small portion of our total value of Saniona, we think the press release has a clear signal value. This is the first program that goes into clinical trial since Saniona took over the ion channel platform. It should also be noted that Saniona holds a 7% shareholder interest in Cadent Therapeutics. Besides from the SCA and essential tremor program, Cadent Therapeutics has a clinical program for the treatment of depression in phase I and a program in schizophrenia in discovery phase.

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