Alzecure Q1 Update: Inflection point ahead
Research Update
2023-05-05
09:27
Redeye returns with an update following the Q1 report. We continue to believe that the current valuation of the company is undemanding and that important inflection points are ahead, most notably the phase II readout in pain with ACD440 this summer.
FT
Fredrik Thor
Contents
Investment thesis
Recap: The ACD440 phase II trial in neuropathic pain
Valuation
Share Price Development
Quality Rating
Financials
Rating definitions
The team
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Key figures from the report:
(The numbers in parenthesis refer to the corresponding quarter of last year)
We note that the report came in as expected, with a relatively slim OPEX at SEK10m: The company states that administrative expenses were on par with the same period the previous year, and we note that R&D expenses are lower as the key ongoing clinical trial now mainly is the phase II trial with ACD440 (n=14), that will be finalized this summer the latest. We reiterate our stance that the company has a cash runway into 2024, and continue to pencil in an estimated capital injection in late 2023/early 2024 of SEK60m. However, we want to emphasize that the company is actively pursuing a licensing deal, which could significantly reduce the expected remaining dilution and lead us to raise our valuation further if delivered.
Looking forward, the company states that it will continue to invest in communication and business development. Alzecure participated in several meetings and congresses during Q1, including JP Morgan and BioEurope and the AD/PD congress in Gothenburg, where for example new data on the disease modifying Alzheimers platform Alzstatin was presented. Earlier in Q1, a new candidate drug in the preclinical stage was selected called ACD680. We note that Alzecure has an ambitious goal to out license one of its candidates by 2023 - an impressive goal, we argue, that would be transformative for the company. Given the positive progress in the Alzheimers field, including positive data for the antibodies Lecanemab and Donanemab, we believe investments into novel Alzheimer's treatments, including those based on the amyloid-beta hypothesis, only will increase. Looking forward, the key catalyst will be the phase II trial with ACD440 in neuropathic pain, and positive data this summer could significantly impact the share we judge.
We just recently reviewed our take on Alzecure in a research update and reiterate our stance on the company at this stage. Our base case amount to SEK13 per share, indicating a significant upside from today’s levels at SEK4.4 per share. Our bull- and bear case remains at SEK1.5 and SEK23, respectively.
SEKm | 2022 | 2023e | 2024e | 2025e |
Revenues | 0.00 | 0.00 | 43.7 | 330.7 |
EBIT | -56.4 | -65.7 | -14.8 | 250.2 |
Net Income | -56.2 | -65.6 | -14.8 | 215.6 |
Case
Well Diversified Neurology Play
Evidence
Strong R&D team and distinguished approach
Supportive Analysis
Challenge
Additional Funding Required
Challenge
Risky Inflection Points in Key Projects Remain
Valuation
Ample Upside Remains
AlzeCure obtained the rights to ACD440, a TRPV1 antagonist originally developed by Astra Zeneca as an oral systemic drug, in 2020. AlzeCure has repurposed it as a gel for topical use. TRPV1 is an established and validated target for pain, as demonstrated by David Julius's Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2021 for his discovery of TRPV1. The VR1 receptor, also known as TRPV1 (transient receptor potential vanilloid 1) is an ion channel present on sensory nerves. An ion channel is a passage in the cell membrane that controls the electrical charge in the cell. TRPV1 was discovered in the late 1990s when it was identified based on its response to capsaicin, the active ingredient in chili peppers. As well as capsaicin, a low pH is considered to have an activating action on TRPV1. The signalling pathway is otherwise principally associated with being a heat sensor. This is also logical in consideration of the burning sensation from eating chili peppers.
In February 2022, it was reported that AlzeCure had received a supportive response from the FDA regarding its pre-IND application for the phase IIa trial. The trial (n=14) is a crossover trial, conducted in a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled manner. Patients with peripheral neuropathic pain displaying symptoms such as allodynia or hyperalgesia to cold, heat, brush, and/or pinprick stimulation were selected to participate. The patients received either ACD440 Gel or placebo treatment twice daily for seven days, applied topically to the area of pain in random order. Following this, there was a two-week washout period, after which the patients will receive the alternate treatment. In this way, the patients were used both as a control and treatment population. The study's primary endpoint measure stimulated evoked pain, assessed through sub-items 8-10 on the Neuropathic Pain Symptom Inventory (NPSI). Secondary endpoints include overall symptom intensity measured by the full NPSI scale, pain intensity evaluated by the Numerical Rating Scale (NRS), and Patient Global Impression of Change (PGIC). Safety and tolerability will be carefully monitored and deemed crucial.
The first patient was included in June 2022, and the company reported in March 2023 that it had treated the last patient, indicating that top-line data could be presented by early summer.
We reiterate our base case of SEK13 per share, using a WACC based on our Redeye rating at 14.5% and an expected capital injection of SEK60m in early 2024/late 2023. Our bull- and bear case remains at SEK1.5 and SEK23, respectively.
In February 2022, the stock price dropped following the announcement of a rights issue. The share price has recovered quite significantly since – a combination, we judge, of internal progress and external news (positive Lecanemab phase III data).
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Disclosures and disclaimers
Contents
Investment thesis
Recap: The ACD440 phase II trial in neuropathic pain
Valuation
Share Price Development
Quality Rating
Financials
Rating definitions
The team
Download article