Alzecure Q1 Update: Inflection point ahead

Research Update

2023-05-05

09:27

Redeye returns with an update following the Q1 report. We continue to believe that the current valuation of the company is undemanding and that important inflection points are ahead, most notably the phase II readout in pain with ACD440 this summer.

FT

Fredrik Thor

Contents

Investment thesis

Recap: The ACD440 phase II trial in neuropathic pain

Valuation

Share Price Development

Quality Rating

Financials

Rating definitions

The team

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Key figures from the report:

  • Net sales for the period amounted to SEK0m (0m)
  • Operating loss amounted to SEK-9.8m (-12.7m)
  • Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter amounted to SEK53.7m (25.7m)
  • R&D Expenditure as part of OPEX: 72.5% (79.8%)

(The numbers in parenthesis refer to the corresponding quarter of last year)

Report as expected

We note that the report came in as expected, with a relatively slim OPEX at SEK10m: The company states that administrative expenses were on par with the same period the previous year, and we note that R&D expenses are lower as the key ongoing clinical trial now mainly is the phase II trial with ACD440 (n=14), that will be finalized this summer the latest. We reiterate our stance that the company has a cash runway into 2024, and continue to pencil in an estimated capital injection in late 2023/early 2024 of SEK60m. However, we want to emphasize that the company is actively pursuing a licensing deal, which could significantly reduce the expected remaining dilution and lead us to raise our valuation further if delivered.

Full speed ahead

Looking forward, the company states that it will continue to invest in communication and business development. Alzecure participated in several meetings and congresses during Q1, including JP Morgan and BioEurope and the AD/PD congress in Gothenburg, where for example new data on the disease modifying Alzheimers platform Alzstatin was presented. Earlier in Q1, a new candidate drug in the preclinical stage was selected called ACD680. We note that Alzecure has an ambitious goal to out license one of its candidates by 2023 - an impressive goal, we argue, that would be transformative for the company. Given the positive progress in the Alzheimers field, including positive data for the antibodies Lecanemab and Donanemab, we believe investments into novel Alzheimer's treatments, including those based on the amyloid-beta hypothesis, only will increase. Looking forward, the key catalyst will be the phase II trial with ACD440 in neuropathic pain, and positive data this summer could significantly impact the share we judge.

Valuation maintained

We just recently reviewed our take on Alzecure in a research update and reiterate our stance on the company at this stage. Our base case amount to SEK13 per share, indicating a significant upside from today’s levels at SEK4.4 per share. Our bull- and bear case remains at SEK1.5 and SEK23, respectively.

Key financials

SEKm20222023e2024e2025e
Revenues0.000.0043.7330.7
EBIT-56.4-65.7-14.8250.2
Net Income-56.2-65.6-14.8215.6

Investment thesis

Case

Well Diversified Neurology Play

Alzecure offers significant upside thanks to the market’s continued under-estimation of the strong fundamental value in the company, shadowed by a period of relatively few significant catalysts and selling pressure in the wake of the recent rights issue. Alzecure is a neurology platform case focused on developing first-in-class small molecule drugs. The company’s R&D projects are split into three research platforms addressing Alzheimer’s disease and pain: two key therapy areas of significant unmet medical need in the central nervous system.

Evidence

Strong R&D team and distinguished approach

We view the company’s internal R&D capacity and experienced management team (with Big Pharma origins) as an asset that differentiates Alzecure from peers at the same development stage. The company’s in-house expertise in the discovery and development of small molecules—a process that has generated most of the company’s lead projects—should not be under-estimated and forms a compelling part of the investment case in Alzecure. Small molecules are more flexible, convenient (can be taken orally), and can naturally penetrate the blood/brain barrier, a key obstacle when developing drugs for the central nervous system. Furthermore, after recent setbacks with antibody treatments for Alzheimer’s, the strong need for additional treatments and modalities appears even more convincing.

Supportive Analysis

Alternatives to current treatments for Alzheimer’s disease—a progressive and ultimately deadly neurodegenerative disease—represent perhaps the most significant unmet medical need today and are expected to grow significantly in the upcoming decades due to an aging population and the cost of this, which will severely burden healthcare systems. The disease burden in the US alone (today USD 355bn) is expected to increase to USD 1tn by 2050. Alzecure has a holistic approach to the disease but has consistently focused on convenient, orally formulated drugs through its promising (but early-stage) preventive treatment (Alzstatin) and its symptomatic treatment addressing cognitive decline (Neurorestore). Preventing the progression of Alzheimer’s, especially in the pre-symptomatic stage, has very strong health economic benefits given the high costs at later stages of the disease. We also see a good rationale for improving the quality of life for Alzheimer’s patients—given a situation that will persist for many years to come

Challenge

Additional Funding Required

Alzecure is a platform company with an active agenda. To fully reap the benefits of the vast pipeline potential, it will need additional funding in the upcoming 12-18 months, in our view. The most prominent catalyst to close this gap is a licensing deal with non-dilutive upfront payments – but our base case today includes a rights issue to stay conservative.

Challenge

Risky Inflection Points in Key Projects Remain

Alzecure business model revolves around early clinical development within Alzheimer’s disease and pain – two indications with historically low success rates. At this stage, risky inflection points (most notably phase II readouts) remain in the company. On the positive side, we note that Alzecure is a platform company with strong R&D expertise – thus not a one-trick -pony dependent on a single readout. Furthermore, early out-licensing could be an option to mitigate risk

Valuation

Ample Upside Remains

Despite recent recovery, the weak biotech sentiment of the past years and neutral newsflow in the company has led to the stock to be undervalued. We believe that the recent increase in share price is due to both internal advancements, a solid capital injection with strong insider participation and external news, such as the approval of Lecanemab. Our assessment sets a base case of SEK13 per share, which represents a significant upside from today's levels.

Recap: The ACD440 phase II trial in neuropathic pain

AlzeCure obtained the rights to ACD440, a TRPV1 antagonist originally developed by Astra Zeneca as an oral systemic drug, in 2020. AlzeCure has repurposed it as a gel for topical use. TRPV1 is an established and validated target for pain, as demonstrated by David Julius's Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2021 for his discovery of TRPV1. The VR1 receptor, also known as TRPV1 (transient receptor potential vanilloid 1) is an ion channel present on sensory nerves. An ion channel is a passage in the cell membrane that controls the electrical charge in the cell. TRPV1 was discovered in the late 1990s when it was identified based on its response to capsaicin, the active ingredient in chili peppers. As well as capsaicin, a low pH is considered to have an activating action on TRPV1. The signalling pathway is otherwise principally associated with being a heat sensor. This is also logical in consideration of the burning sensation from eating chili peppers.

In February 2022, it was reported that AlzeCure had received a supportive response from the FDA regarding its pre-IND application for the phase IIa trial. The trial (n=14) is a crossover trial, conducted in a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled manner. Patients with peripheral neuropathic pain displaying symptoms such as allodynia or hyperalgesia to cold, heat, brush, and/or pinprick stimulation were selected to participate. The patients received either ACD440 Gel or placebo treatment twice daily for seven days, applied topically to the area of pain in random order. Following this, there was a two-week washout period, after which the patients will receive the alternate treatment. In this way, the patients were used both as a control and treatment population. The study's primary endpoint measure stimulated evoked pain, assessed through sub-items 8-10 on the Neuropathic Pain Symptom Inventory (NPSI). Secondary endpoints include overall symptom intensity measured by the full NPSI scale, pain intensity evaluated by the Numerical Rating Scale (NRS), and Patient Global Impression of Change (PGIC). Safety and tolerability will be carefully monitored and deemed crucial.

The first patient was included in June 2022, and the company reported in March 2023 that it had treated the last patient, indicating that top-line data could be presented by early summer.

Valuation

We reiterate our base case of SEK13 per share, using a WACC based on our Redeye rating at 14.5% and an expected capital injection of SEK60m in early 2024/late 2023. Our bull- and bear case remains at SEK1.5 and SEK23, respectively.

Share Price Development

In February 2022, the stock price dropped following the announcement of a rights issue. The share price has recovered quite significantly since – a combination, we judge, of internal progress and external news (positive Lecanemab phase III data).

Quality Rating

People: 3

Business: 3

Financials: 0

Financials

Rating definitions

The team

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Contents

Investment thesis

Recap: The ACD440 phase II trial in neuropathic pain

Valuation

Share Price Development

Quality Rating

Financials

Rating definitions

The team

Download article