Beyond Frames: “Ghost of Tabor” paves the way
Research Update
2024-02-23
13:23
Analyst Q&A
Closed
Tomas Otterbeck answered 5 questions.
The company’s publishing title continued to uphold the new level of sales that have been reported since March 2023. Soon, it will be one year since the game was released, and it is encouraging to see that engagement and sales are still stable and growing. Redeye makes minor adjustments to our estimates for 2024 and 2025. However, the pipeline of game releases in 2026 has made us increase our sales and profitability estimates for 2026. We do a minor upward adjustment to our base case.
TO
JW
Tomas Otterbeck
John Westborg
"Ghost of Tabor" operates on a "Games as a Service" business model, ensuring continual launch and sale of new content (DLCs) to cater to the expanding player community. As long as monthly active user engagement remains high, the game will sustain and generate cash flows for Beyond Frames. Combat Waffle and Beyond Frames, the developers of the game, will continue their collaboration, with an agreement signed to publish two more games developed by Combat Waffle. It is certainly reassuring that Beyond Frames will maintain its partnership with the developer of their greatest success.
We are revising the full-year sales estimates for 2024 and 2025 slightly upwards due to the better-than-expected Q4. The somewhat low visibility in the game pipeline for especially 2024, make us lower our expectations somewhat regarding profitability for these years. However, we anticipate the next significant increase in revenue in 2026, when their internal development studio, Cortopia, is expected to release their major game based on a "multi-billion-dollar IP."
The success in Beyond Frames publishing business (read Ghost of Tabor) has secured a valuation that The success in Beyond Frames publishing business (read Ghost of Tabor) has secured a valuation that is not that depressed as in its Nordic peer group. Beyond Frames is also a “pure play” with a clear focus on VR and no major acquisitions during the last years. The company is debt-free, which also is an important parameter these days.
We reiterate our fair value range of SEK13-46 per share. However we do a minor upward adjustment to our base case to SEK28 per share (SEK27 per share).
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Revenues | 24.9 | 138.5 | 154.0 | 167.2 | 231.0 |
Revenue Growth | 4.3% | 457% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 38.2% |
EBITDA | -15.0 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 26.3 | 42.8 |
EBIT | -22.6 | -6.7 | -12.0 | 4.6 | 19.8 |
EBIT Margin | -91.3% | -4.9% | -7.8% | 2.8% | 8.6% |
Net Income | -23.2 | -7.8 | -11.5 | 3.7 | 15.6 |
EV/Sales | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
EV/EBIT | -5.3 | -52.0 | -30.6 | 77.7 | 17.9 |
Case
Attractive exposure towards the growing VR industry
Evidence
Tech giants entering the field
Challenge
Commercialization
Valuation
Superior growth
Sales exceeded expectations at SEK40.4m, compared to our estimate of SEK35m. EBITDA of SEK3.9m was also higher than our forecast of SEK0.8m. With D&A in line with our estimate, EBIT stood at SEK-1.3m, versus our projected SEK-3.7m. Therefore, the outcome surpassed expectations across all metrics. The primary contributor was once again the popular game "Ghost of Tabor", published by Beyond Frames. The game demonstrated financial stability throughout the quarter and remained one of the top sellers on the Meta Quest Store in the first half of Q1.
"Ghost of Tabor" operates on a "Games as a Service" business model, ensuring continual launch and sale of new content (DLCs) to cater to the expanding player community. As long as monthly active user engagement remains high, the game will sustain and generate cash flows for Beyond Frames. Combat Waffle and Beyond Frames, the developers of the game, will continue their collaboration, with an agreement signed to publish two more games developed by Combat Waffle. It is certainly reassuring that Beyond Frames will maintain its partnership with the developer of their greatest success.
Beyond Frames' internal VR game studio, Cortopia, is currently working on three titles. Development fees will help stabilise cash flows and support Cortopia financially throughout 2025.
In the short term, we believe that the publishing title "Ghost of Tabor" will be the most significant growth driver. The company plans to port the game to other platforms, such as Playstation VR2, which will expand sales for the title.
Beyond Frames: Actuals vs estimates | |||
(SEKm) | Q4 2023a | Q4 2023e | Diff (abs) |
Net sales | 40.4 | 35.1 | 5.3 |
COGS | -34.7 | -29.9 | -4.8 |
Gross profit | 6.1 | 6.7 | -0.6 |
Total net opex | -18.5 | -4.5 | -14.0 |
EBITDA | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
D&A | -4.6 | -4.6 | |
EBIT | -1.3 | -3.7 | 2.5 |
Net income | -3.8 | -3.3 | -0.5 |
EBITDA - Capex | 3.4 | -5.5 | 8.9 |
Net sales y/y % | 853% | 729% | |
Net sales q/q % | 12% | -2% | |
Gross margin % | 15% | 19% | |
EBITDA margin % | 8% | 6% | |
EBIT margin % | -3% | -11% | |
Source: Redeye research (estimates) (historical data) |
We are revising the full-year estimate for 2024 slightly upwards regarding sales to SEK153.6 million from the previous SEK148 million. As the game "Ghost of Tabor" remains the primary known revenue driver, we anticipate continued low gross margins in 2024, as royalty costs are expected to remain high. It's worth noting that distribution costs are also deducted in COGS (Cost of Goods Sold).
We have increased the cost base compared to our previous estimates. "Total net OPEX" remains in line with previous estimates. However, we have slightly raised personnel costs while external costs have been reduced by almost the same amount.
With COGS increased by SEK13 million, the gross profit amounts to SEK34 million compared to the previous SEK42 million. This results in EBITDA being reduced to SEK7.2 million (from SEK15 million) and EBIT reduced to SEK-12 million (from SEK-3.5 million) for the full year 2024.
We are also raising sales for the full year 2025 slightly to SEK167 million from the previous SEK160 million. EBITDA is expected to be around SEK26 million (previously SEK30 million) with an EBIT of SEK5 million (previously SEK9 million) in 2025.
In 2025, we expect Beyond Frames to successfully add another successful publishing title, while the studio Odd Raven (in which the company owns 38% of the shares) releases its PC game.
We anticipate the next significant increase in revenue in 2026, when their internal development studio, Cortopia, is expected to release their major game based on a "multi-billion-dollar IP." Our best guess at the moment is that this game is based on a major brand from Disney or Warner, such as MARVEL, Avatar, Star Wars, or Batman. But we currently belive the most likely IP it is based on is Harry Potter. Due to the similarties with Cortopias previously popular VR-game "Wands".
During this year, we expect the gross margin to have increased from 22% (estimated for 2024) to 34% (estimated for 2026).
Beyond Frames: Redeye estimates | |||||||
(SEKm) | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Net sales | 29.2 | 41.8 | 35.8 | 43.6 | 153.6 | 166.8 | 230.6 |
COGS | -22.7 | -32.6 | -27.9 | -34.0 | -119.8 | -113.4 | -153.4 |
Gross profit | 6.5 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 34.2 | 53.8 | 77.7 |
Capitalised development | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 25.4 | 26.7 | 36.9 |
Other external costs | -3.6 | -3.6 | -3.6 | -3.6 | -14.6 | -18.3 | -23.1 |
Personnel costs | -9.3 | -9.3 | -9.3 | -9.3 | -37.2 | -44.2 | -48.7 |
EBITDA | -0.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 7.2 | 26.3 | 42.8 |
Adjusted EBITDA | -0.2 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 7.2 | 26.3 | 42.8 |
EBIT | -5.0 | -2.3 | -3.6 | -1.8 | -12.0 | 4.6 | 19.8 |
Tax | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -1.0 | -4.2 |
Net income | -5.1 | -1.8 | -3.6 | -1.8 | -11.5 | 3.7 | 15.6 |
EPS | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.7 | 0.2 | 0.9 |
EBITDA - Capex | -9.2 | -6.1 | -5.1 | -5.5 | -18.4 | -0.7 | 14.8 |
Net sales y/y % | 69% | 868% | 361% | 729% | 12% | 9% | 38% |
Net sales q/q % | -79% | 151% | -17% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Gross margin % | 22% | 20% | 18% | 23% | 22% | 32% | 34% |
The success in Beyond Frames publishing business (read Ghost of Tabor) has secured a valuation that is not that depressed as in its Nordic peer group. Beyond Frames is also a “pure play” with a clear focus on VR and no major acquisitions during the last years. The company is debt-free, which also is an important parameter these days.
On EV/Sales multiples, Beyond Frames looks cheap both compared to its Nordic and its international peers. However, the company report sales before distribution costs which make the number inflated compared to most peers. Beyond Frames is also a very small company in an obvious growth phase so it is hard to do a good peer comparison on profitability metrics such as EBITDA and EBIT. Compared to internation peers, when looking at the median, Beyond Frames is in line with other gaming stocks looking at 2026 estimates.
Beyond Frames: Peer valuation | |||||||
EV SEKm | EV/Sales | EV/EBITDA | |||||
Nordic peers | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
Embracer | 41,515 | 1.0x | 0.9x | 0.9x | 4.0x | 3.5x | 3.2x |
Paradox | 20,578 | 7.8x | 7.4x | 6.9x | 15.6x | 10.6x | 10.0x |
EG7 | 708 | 0.3x | 0.4x | 0.3x | 1.6x | 1.5x | 1.3x |
Remedy | 2,144 | 5.6x | 3.6x | 2.9x | >100 | 92.9x | 15.1x |
Stillfront | 8,890 | 1.3x | 1.3x | 1.2x | 4.3x | 3.5x | 3.4x |
G5 Entertainment | 851 | 0.6x | 0.7x | 0.7x | 6.1x | 3.2x | 3.1x |
MTG | 6,907 | 1.2x | 1.1x | 1.1x | 5.6x | 4.5x | 4.3x |
Thunderful | 654 | 0.2x | 0.2x | 0.2x | 1.9x | 1.6x | 1.6x |
Median Nordics | 4,538 | 1.1x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 4.4x | 3.5x | 3.3x |
International peers | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
11 Bit Studios | 3,393 | 20.3x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 49.8x | 5.3x | 5.6x |
Team 17 | 4,233 | 2.2x | 2.1x | 2.1x | 6.3x | 7.5x | 7.1x |
Frontier Developments | 671 | 0.6x | 0.6x | 0.5x | 1.7x | neg | >100 |
EA | 390,390 | 5.0x | 4.8x | 4.5x | 21.0x | 13.6x | 12.5x |
Take Two | 292,704 | 5.3x | 4.0x | 3.5x | 18.9x | 18.2x | 14.8x |
Bandai Namco | 123,673 | 1.7x | 1.7x | 1.6x | 10.9x | 10.6x | 9.9x |
CD Project | 28,617 | 9.5x | 14.1x | 17.1x | 23.9x | 30.2x | 45.6x |
Ubisoft | 44,639 | 1.8x | 1.7x | 1.6x | 5.6x | 3.4x | 3.1x |
Nintendo | 532,305 | 4.6x | 4.8x | 4.3x | 13.5x | 17.3x | 16.1x |
Median International | 36,628 | 2.1x | 2.0x | 1.9x | 12.2x | 9.3x | 8.5x |
Beyond Frames | 349 | 1.3x | 0.9x | 0.6x | 50.8x | 13.7x | 8.3x |
Source: Factset (consensus estimates), Redeye research (estimates) |
Beyond Frames: DCF long-term assumptions | |||
SEK | Bear case | Base case | Bull Case |
Valuation per share | 12 | 28 | 43 |
Revenue CAGR 2023-2027 | 11% | 19% | 15% |
Revenue CAGR 2028-2037 | 7% | 10% | 13% |
EBITDA-margin 2023-2037 | 15% | 18% | 21% |
Terminal growth | 2% | 2% | 2% |
Terminal EBITDA % | 27% | 32% | 36% |
Source: Redeye research (estimates) |
People: 3
Beyond Frames has a good shareholder list, with several shareholders who are long-term according to our assessment. The Chairman of the Board is Michael Söderström, who is the founder of Beyond Frames, and is part of the ARVR Holdings group that owns 16 percent of the company. He also privately owns 1% of the company. The company is still relatively young, which has led us to mark "unsure" on several questions in our People rating. The company's short history penalises our rating to some extent.
Business: 3
Beyond Frames currently focuses on VR/XR entertainment with an emphasis on gaming. This is a niche where competition is still relatively low compared to the gaming industry as a whole. The company is in a natural growth phase that should have tailwinds for the next 5-10 years, as the VR/XR industry is still in its infancy. Besides a "first-mover advantage" and expertise in VR/XR, it is difficult to see strong competitive advantages. The company also does not currently possess any strong IP of its own.
Financials: 1
Beyond Frames is debt-free. The company has also grown faster than the industry as a whole during its short lifespan. However, like many smaller companies, Beyond Frames has not been able to demonstrate profitability during its strong growth phase, which explains the low rating.
Income statement | |||||
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Revenues | 24.9 | 138.5 | 154.0 | 167.2 | 231.0 |
Cost of Revenue | 15.7 | 108.7 | 119.4 | 113.0 | 153.0 |
Operating Expenses | 24.0 | 18.5 | 27.0 | 27.5 | 34.8 |
EBITDA | -15.0 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 26.3 | 42.8 |
Depreciation | 7.6 | 16.4 | 19.2 | 21.7 | 23.1 |
Amortizations | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
EBIT | -22.6 | -6.7 | -12.0 | 4.6 | 19.8 |
Shares in Associates | 0.95 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Interest Expenses | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Net Financial Items | -0.04 | -1.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
EBT | -22.6 | -7.7 | -12.0 | 4.6 | 19.8 |
Income Tax Expenses | 0.00 | 0.04 | -0.45 | 0.97 | 4.2 |
Net Income | -23.2 | -7.8 | -11.5 | 3.7 | 15.6 |
Balance sheet | |||||
Assets | |||||
Non-current assets | |||||
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Property, Plant and Equipment (Net) | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
Goodwill | 1.3 | 0.76 | 0.76 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
Intangible Assets | 39.4 | 60.6 | 66.9 | 72.2 | 77.1 |
Right-of-Use Assets | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
Other Non-Current Assets | 0.00 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 |
Total Non-Current Assets | 44.1 | 65.8 | 77.2 | 82.5 | 87.5 |
Current assets | |||||
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Inventories | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Accounts Receivable | 2.5 | 12.7 | 14.3 | 15.5 | 0.00 |
Other Current Assets | 4.5 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 |
Cash Equivalents | 48.3 | 21.8 | 3.7 | 10.8 | 17.0 |
Total Current Assets | 55.3 | 39.5 | 23.4 | 32.0 | 19.6 |
Total Assets | 99.4 | 105.3 | 100.6 | 114.5 | 107.1 |
Equity and Liabilities | |||||
Equity | |||||
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Non Controlling Interest | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
Shareholder's Equity | 89.6 | 81.9 | 74.4 | 78.3 | 77.3 |
Non-current liabilities | |||||
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Long Term Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Long Term Lease Liabilities | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Long Term Liabilities | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 9.8 | 9.8 |
Total Non-Current Liabilities | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 9.8 | 9.8 |
Current liabilities | |||||
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Short Term Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Short Term Lease Liabilities | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Accounts Payable | 1.6 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 0.00 |
Other Current Liabilities | 6.0 | 17.1 | 19.1 | 19.2 | 18.0 |
Total Current Liabilities | 7.6 | 21.3 | 23.8 | 24.3 | 18.0 |
Total Liabilities and Equity | 99.4 | 105.3 | 100.6 | 114.5 | 107.1 |
Cash flow | |||||
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Operating Cash Flow | -12.3 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 34.1 | 34.2 |
Investing Cash Flow | -26.3 | -38.1 | -25.7 | -27.0 | -28.0 |
Financing Cash Flow | 42.7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Disclosures and disclaimers