Beyond Frames: “Ghost of Tabor” paves the way

Research Update

2024-02-23

13:23

Analyst Q&A

Closed

Tomas Otterbeck answered 5 questions.

The company’s publishing title continued to uphold the new level of sales that have been reported since March 2023. Soon, it will be one year since the game was released, and it is encouraging to see that engagement and sales are still stable and growing. Redeye makes minor adjustments to our estimates for 2024 and 2025. However, the pipeline of game releases in 2026 has made us increase our sales and profitability estimates for 2026. We do a minor upward adjustment to our base case.

TO

JW

Tomas Otterbeck

John Westborg

Agreement with Combat Waffle strengthens future prospects

"Ghost of Tabor" operates on a "Games as a Service" business model, ensuring continual launch and sale of new content (DLCs) to cater to the expanding player community. As long as monthly active user engagement remains high, the game will sustain and generate cash flows for Beyond Frames. Combat Waffle and Beyond Frames, the developers of the game, will continue their collaboration, with an agreement signed to publish two more games developed by Combat Waffle. It is certainly reassuring that Beyond Frames will maintain its partnership with the developer of their greatest success.

“Next-level” sales expected in 2026

We are revising the full-year sales estimates for 2024 and 2025 slightly upwards due to the better-than-expected Q4. The somewhat low visibility in the game pipeline for especially 2024, make us lower our expectations somewhat regarding profitability for these years. However, we anticipate the next significant increase in revenue in 2026, when their internal development studio, Cortopia, is expected to release their major game based on a "multi-billion-dollar IP."

Valuation

The success in Beyond Frames publishing business (read Ghost of Tabor) has secured a valuation that The success in Beyond Frames publishing business (read Ghost of Tabor) has secured a valuation that is not that depressed as in its Nordic peer group. Beyond Frames is also a “pure play” with a clear focus on VR and no major acquisitions during the last years. The company is debt-free, which also is an important parameter these days.

We reiterate our fair value range of SEK13-46 per share. However we do a minor upward adjustment to our base case to SEK28 per share (SEK27 per share).

Key financials

SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Revenues24.9138.5154.0167.2231.0
Revenue Growth4.3%457%11.3%8.5%38.2%
EBITDA-15.09.77.226.342.8
EBIT-22.6-6.7-12.04.619.8
EBIT Margin-91.3%-4.9%-7.8%2.8%8.6%
Net Income-23.2-7.8-11.53.715.6
EV/Sales4.82.51.30.90.6
EV/EBIT-5.3-52.0-30.677.717.9

Investment thesis

Case

Attractive exposure towards the growing VR industry

Beyond Frames is a game developer and publisher niched towards the VR market, an area still in its infancy but expected to grow by a CAGR of 18 percent until 2028, driven by hardware and software investments. Moreover, VR games tend to have a long life-span and lower development budgets than traditional premium PC/console games. This, in combination with their solely digital distribution, brings high operating margins and a healthy return on investments. Beyond Frames aims to expand its game portfolio tenfold.

Evidence

Tech giants entering the field

Meta, the current market leader in the VR space, spent more than USD 15bn in 2023 on capitalizing on the market opportunities. Its VR headset product line, Oculus Quest , has sold ~20 million units. In addition, Sony released its PSVR2 in 2023, and several other major tech players are investing in the field such as Apple. This trend is an additional catalyst for expanding the user base.

Challenge

Commercialization

The VR industry is still in its infancy and remains dependent on large hardware investments to make VR headsets more affordable to the wider audience. There are risks that the commercialization of VR headsets will take longer than expected, which would naturally affect the global user base. Additionally, VR headsets could be used for other functions, particularly in several work applications and in education. There is no guarantee of gaming as the killer application for VR headsets.

Valuation

Superior growth

The success in Beyond Frames publishing business (read Ghost of Tabor) has secured a valuation that is not that depressed as in its Nordic peer group. Beyond Frames is also a “pure play” with a clear focus on VR and no major acquisitions during the last years. The company is debt-free, which also is an important parameter these days.

Q4-comments

Sales exceeded expectations at SEK40.4m, compared to our estimate of SEK35m. EBITDA of SEK3.9m was also higher than our forecast of SEK0.8m. With D&A in line with our estimate, EBIT stood at SEK-1.3m, versus our projected SEK-3.7m. Therefore, the outcome surpassed expectations across all metrics. The primary contributor was once again the popular game "Ghost of Tabor", published by Beyond Frames. The game demonstrated financial stability throughout the quarter and remained one of the top sellers on the Meta Quest Store in the first half of Q1.

"Ghost of Tabor" operates on a "Games as a Service" business model, ensuring continual launch and sale of new content (DLCs) to cater to the expanding player community. As long as monthly active user engagement remains high, the game will sustain and generate cash flows for Beyond Frames. Combat Waffle and Beyond Frames, the developers of the game, will continue their collaboration, with an agreement signed to publish two more games developed by Combat Waffle. It is certainly reassuring that Beyond Frames will maintain its partnership with the developer of their greatest success.

Beyond Frames' internal VR game studio, Cortopia, is currently working on three titles. Development fees will help stabilise cash flows and support Cortopia financially throughout 2025.

In the short term, we believe that the publishing title "Ghost of Tabor" will be the most significant growth driver. The company plans to port the game to other platforms, such as Playstation VR2, which will expand sales for the title.

Beyond Frames: Actuals vs estimates
(SEKm)Q4 2023aQ4 2023eDiff (abs)
Net sales40.435.15.3
COGS-34.7-29.9-4.8
Gross profit6.16.7-0.6
Total net opex-18.5-4.5-14.0
EBITDA3.42.21.2
D&A-4.6-4.6
EBIT-1.3-3.72.5
Net income-3.8-3.3-0.5
EBITDA - Capex3.4-5.58.9
Net sales y/y %853%729%
Net sales q/q %12%-2%
Gross margin %15%19%
EBITDA margin %8%6%
EBIT margin %-3%-11%
Source: Redeye research (estimates) (historical data)

Financial projections

We are revising the full-year estimate for 2024 slightly upwards regarding sales to SEK153.6 million from the previous SEK148 million. As the game "Ghost of Tabor" remains the primary known revenue driver, we anticipate continued low gross margins in 2024, as royalty costs are expected to remain high. It's worth noting that distribution costs are also deducted in COGS (Cost of Goods Sold).

We have increased the cost base compared to our previous estimates. "Total net OPEX" remains in line with previous estimates. However, we have slightly raised personnel costs while external costs have been reduced by almost the same amount.

With COGS increased by SEK13 million, the gross profit amounts to SEK34 million compared to the previous SEK42 million. This results in EBITDA being reduced to SEK7.2 million (from SEK15 million) and EBIT reduced to SEK-12 million (from SEK-3.5 million) for the full year 2024.

We are also raising sales for the full year 2025 slightly to SEK167 million from the previous SEK160 million. EBITDA is expected to be around SEK26 million (previously SEK30 million) with an EBIT of SEK5 million (previously SEK9 million) in 2025.

In 2025, we expect Beyond Frames to successfully add another successful publishing title, while the studio Odd Raven (in which the company owns 38% of the shares) releases its PC game.

We anticipate the next significant increase in revenue in 2026, when their internal development studio, Cortopia, is expected to release their major game based on a "multi-billion-dollar IP." Our best guess at the moment is that this game is based on a major brand from Disney or Warner, such as MARVEL, Avatar, Star Wars, or Batman. But we currently belive the most likely IP it is based on is Harry Potter. Due to the similarties with Cortopias previously popular VR-game "Wands".

During this year, we expect the gross margin to have increased from 22% (estimated for 2024) to 34% (estimated for 2026).

Beyond Frames: Redeye estimates
(SEKm)Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 20242024e2025e2026e
Net sales29.241.835.843.6153.6166.8230.6
COGS-22.7-32.6-27.9-34.0-119.8-113.4-153.4
Gross profit6.59.38.09.734.253.877.7
Capitalised development6.36.36.36.325.426.736.9
Other external costs -3.6-3.6-3.6-3.6-14.6-18.3-23.1
Personnel costs -9.3-9.3-9.3-9.3-37.2-44.2-48.7
EBITDA-0.22.61.23.07.226.342.8
Adjusted EBITDA-0.24.42.20.87.226.342.8
EBIT-5.0-2.3-3.6-1.8-12.04.619.8
Tax0.00.50.00.00.4-1.0-4.2
Net income-5.1-1.8-3.6-1.8-11.53.715.6
EPS-0.3-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.70.20.9
EBITDA - Capex-9.2-6.1-5.1-5.5-18.4-0.714.8
Net sales y/y %69%868%361%729%12%9%38%
Net sales q/q %-79%151%-17%-2%0%0%0%
Gross margin %22%20%18%23%22%32%34%

Valuation

The success in Beyond Frames publishing business (read Ghost of Tabor) has secured a valuation that is not that depressed as in its Nordic peer group. Beyond Frames is also a “pure play” with a clear focus on VR and no major acquisitions during the last years. The company is debt-free, which also is an important parameter these days.

On EV/Sales multiples, Beyond Frames looks cheap both compared to its Nordic and its international peers. However, the company report sales before distribution costs which make the number inflated compared to most peers. Beyond Frames is also a very small company in an obvious growth phase so it is hard to do a good peer comparison on profitability metrics such as EBITDA and EBIT. Compared to internation peers, when looking at the median, Beyond Frames is in line with other gaming stocks looking at 2026 estimates.

Beyond Frames: Peer valuation
EV SEKmEV/SalesEV/EBITDA
Nordic peers202420252026202420252026
Embracer 41,515 1.0x0.9x0.9x4.0x3.5x3.2x
Paradox 20,578 7.8x7.4x6.9x15.6x10.6x10.0x
EG7 708 0.3x0.4x0.3x1.6x1.5x1.3x
Remedy 2,144 5.6x3.6x2.9x>10092.9x15.1x
Stillfront 8,890 1.3x1.3x1.2x4.3x3.5x3.4x
G5 Entertainment 851 0.6x0.7x0.7x6.1x3.2x3.1x
MTG 6,907 1.2x1.1x1.1x5.6x4.5x4.3x
Thunderful 654 0.2x0.2x0.2x1.9x1.6x1.6x
Median Nordics 4,538 1.1x1.0x1.0x4.4x3.5x3.3x
International peers202420252026202420252026
11 Bit Studios 3,393 20.3x4.0x4.0x49.8x5.3x5.6x
Team 17 4,233 2.2x2.1x2.1x6.3x7.5x7.1x
Frontier Developments 671 0.6x0.6x0.5x1.7xneg>100
EA 390,390 5.0x4.8x4.5x21.0x13.6x12.5x
Take Two 292,704 5.3x4.0x3.5x18.9x18.2x14.8x
Bandai Namco 123,673 1.7x1.7x1.6x10.9x10.6x9.9x
CD Project 28,617 9.5x14.1x17.1x23.9x30.2x45.6x
Ubisoft 44,639 1.8x1.7x1.6x5.6x3.4x3.1x
Nintendo 532,305 4.6x4.8x4.3x13.5x17.3x16.1x
Median International 36,628 2.1x2.0x1.9x12.2x9.3x8.5x
Beyond Frames3491.3x0.9x0.6x50.8x13.7x8.3x
Source: Factset (consensus estimates), Redeye research (estimates)
Beyond Frames: DCF long-term assumptions
SEKBear caseBase caseBull Case
Valuation per share122843
Revenue CAGR 2023-202711%19%15%
Revenue CAGR 2028-20377%10%13%
EBITDA-margin 2023-203715%18%21%
Terminal growth2%2%2%
Terminal EBITDA %27%32%36%
Source: Redeye research (estimates)

Quality Rating

People: 3

Beyond Frames has a good shareholder list, with several shareholders who are long-term according to our assessment. The Chairman of the Board is Michael Söderström, who is the founder of Beyond Frames, and is part of the ARVR Holdings group that owns 16 percent of the company. He also privately owns 1% of the company. The company is still relatively young, which has led us to mark "unsure" on several questions in our People rating. The company's short history penalises our rating to some extent.

Business: 3

Beyond Frames currently focuses on VR/XR entertainment with an emphasis on gaming. This is a niche where competition is still relatively low compared to the gaming industry as a whole. The company is in a natural growth phase that should have tailwinds for the next 5-10 years, as the VR/XR industry is still in its infancy. Besides a "first-mover advantage" and expertise in VR/XR, it is difficult to see strong competitive advantages. The company also does not currently possess any strong IP of its own.

Financials: 1

Beyond Frames is debt-free. The company has also grown faster than the industry as a whole during its short lifespan. However, like many smaller companies, Beyond Frames has not been able to demonstrate profitability during its strong growth phase, which explains the low rating.

Financials

Income statement
SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Revenues24.9138.5154.0167.2231.0
Cost of Revenue15.7108.7119.4113.0153.0
Operating Expenses24.018.527.027.534.8
EBITDA-15.09.77.226.342.8
Depreciation7.616.419.221.723.1
Amortizations0.000.000.000.000.00
EBIT-22.6-6.7-12.04.619.8
Shares in Associates0.951.51.51.51.5
Interest Expenses0.600.000.000.000.00
Net Financial Items-0.04-1.00.000.000.00
EBT-22.6-7.7-12.04.619.8
Income Tax Expenses0.000.04-0.450.974.2
Net Income-23.2-7.8-11.53.715.6
Balance sheet
Assets
Non-current assets
SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Property, Plant and Equipment (Net)2.52.12.12.22.3
Goodwill1.30.760.760.760.76
Intangible Assets39.460.666.972.277.1
Right-of-Use Assets0.000.004.94.94.9
Other Non-Current Assets0.000.950.950.950.95
Total Non-Current Assets44.165.877.282.587.5
Current assets
SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Inventories0.000.000.000.000.00
Accounts Receivable2.512.714.315.50.00
Other Current Assets4.54.95.55.72.6
Cash Equivalents48.321.83.710.817.0
Total Current Assets55.339.523.432.019.6
Total Assets99.4105.3100.6114.5107.1
Equity and Liabilities
Equity
SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Non Controlling Interest2.22.12.12.12.1
Shareholder's Equity89.681.974.478.377.3
Non-current liabilities
SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Long Term Debt0.000.000.000.000.00
Long Term Lease Liabilities0.000.000.000.000.00
Other Long Term Liabilities0.000.000.309.89.8
Total Non-Current Liabilities0.000.000.309.89.8
Current liabilities
SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Short Term Debt0.000.000.000.000.00
Short Term Lease Liabilities0.000.000.000.000.00
Accounts Payable1.64.24.75.10.00
Other Current Liabilities6.017.119.119.218.0
Total Current Liabilities7.621.323.824.318.0
Total Liabilities and Equity99.4105.3100.6114.5107.1
Cash flow
SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Operating Cash Flow-12.311.67.634.134.2
Investing Cash Flow-26.3-38.1-25.7-27.0-28.0
Financing Cash Flow42.70.000.000.000.00

Rating definitions

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