We note that Fortnox has changed prices for a substantial portion of its products and services. While the costs related to some minor services are removed, the bulk of the changes consider price increases. Although the price of the most used subscription module, Bookkeeping, is unchanged, most widely used subscription modules are affected by the increases. See table below for examples.

In addition, e-invoicing is raised from SEK 3 to SEK 5. Other transactions are left unchanged (Payslips was increased from SEK 12 to SEK 19 in December 2023 though), and some minor services, as mentioned, are made free of charge.

We believe the weighted increase regarding subscription modules is about 10-12%. The impact of the changes on transactions is harder to estimate, but we assume a somewhat lower relative contribution.

While the changes, all else equal, as mentioned above, should raise our sales forecasts by roughly 10% - with basically a 100% margin – as we believe Fortnox has solid pricing power and a track record of annual price increases, we assume some price increases in our forecasts. Thus, our upward revisions following the price increases are less than 10%. For 2025 – where the increases have full impact – we raise our sales and EBITDA – CAPEX forecasts by 3% and 7%, respectively.

Based on the increased forecasts, we raise our Base Case to SEK 67 (62).

Also, regarding the high number of bankruptcies in Sweden in February of 908 companies, considering Fortnox’s quarterly net customer intake of ~14,000, the impact on Fortnox is most likely minor.