TH1NG: Divests its broadband customers

Research Update

2024-03-25

08:33

On Friday, TH1NG announced the divestment of its broadband customers to Bahnhof. While we would have preferred to see a slightly higher price tag, we view the divestment positively as it enhances TH1NG’s cash position and gross margin as well as reinforces its focus on the IoT business.

JG

FN

Jessica Grunewald

Fredrik Nilsson

TH1NG recently announced the divestment of its broadband customers in the corporate segment to Bahnhof for a price tag of SEK10m. According to the company, the strategic decision behind this move is to focus on the IoT business. In 2021, TH1NG sold its 20,000 individual customers to Bredband2 for SEK20m. We believe the remaining part of the broadband business now sold to Bahnhof includes some 1,000 corporate customer services, municipal companies, etc.
We estimate that the broadband segment accounted for approximately cSEK12m out of TH1NG’s total net sales of SEK22.5m in 2023. Initially, the price tag of SEK10m may seem low, with a P/S multiple of approximately 0.8x. However, we believe the gross margin for this segment is 20-25% and that the segment is borderline breakeven at its best. Nevertheless, from Bahnhof’s perspective (trading at a trailing twelve months (TTM) EV/S multiple of approximately 2.4x), it is expected to be a good deal since its operational costs for this customer base are likely to be much lower than THING’s. Upon realising the synergies, we would not be surprised if Bahnhof would consider an EV/EBIT multiple of 5-7x for the acquisition (Bahnhof is trading at a TTM 14x EV/EBIT multiple).
By the end of 2023, TH1NG’s cash position was strained, amounting to SEK4.5m. Although TH1NG announced a new convertible note issue of SEK1.1m in February and still has a mandate to issue further convertibles of SEK4.9m, we believe the underlying reason for the divestment was to avoid further dilution through an equity issue. We estimate that the proceeds from the divestment will stabilise the cash position for the first half of 2024, but we foresee a potential need for further cash injections in the second half of 2024. However, we will await the Q1’24 report before modelling such a scenario in our valuation.
Overall, Redeye views the divestments positively as it stabilises the cash position, improves the gross margin, and reinforces its focus on the IoT business. The broadband business is a volume game, and TH1NG lacks the capacity and the strategic intention to grow enough to scale the business. We leave our base case unchanged at SEK4.0.

Key financials

SEKm202220232024e2025e
Revenues40.827.631.761.3
Revenue Growth-41.9%-32.3%14.8%93.0%
EBITDA2.2-13.2-15.7-9.8
EBIT-2.9-19.5-19.1-13.8
EBIT Margin-7.1%-70.7%-60.3%-22.5%
Net Income-16.4-20.0-19.0-13.7
EV/Sales0.31.01.51.0

We adjust our forecasts following the divestment, indicating that TH1NG will experience an approximate SEK12m decrease in annual sales. However, we anticipate positive gross margin and operating expenses (OPEX) effects. For 2024e, we expect a slight negative impact on EBITDA due to the divestment. However, for 2025-2026e, we anticipate that the gross margin and OPEX improvements will offset the sales loss on an EBITDA level.

TH1NG: Changes to estimates
SEKm2023Q1 2024eQ2 2024eQ3 2024eQ4 2024e2024e2025e2026e
Net sales23
-New6689285677
-Old671113356889
-Change0%-10%-29%-32%-22%-18%-13%
Cogs14
-New3445163140
-Old3478223440
-Change0%-13%-35%-41%-28%-9%0%
Gross profit9
-New2234122537
-Old2345133449
-Change0%-6%-17%-17%-12%-26%-24%
OPEX27
-New8888324043
-Old8878325156
-Change0%0%2%3%0%-22%-24%
EBITDA-13
-New-5-5-3-3-16-100
-Old-5-5-2-2-13-100
-Change0%3%-72%-89%-21%-3%202%
Gross margin39%38%40%44%44%42%45%48%
EBITDA margin-59%-85%-78%-41%-39%-57%-17%0%
Source: Redeye Research, Company reports

Investment thesis

Case

Platform provider for smart cities and growth

TH1NG is a platform supplier at the forefront of Sweden’s fast-growing market for IoT-based smart Cities. This rapid growth leads us to believe TH1NG will grow its gross margin revenues for many years to come. In the best case, TH1NG can first scale its platform in Sweden and then in other countries. The primary catalysts for this are expansion of ongoing projects, as well as new partnerships and solid quarterly reports showcasing improved margins.

Evidence

Projects up and running

TH1NG boasts a robust market presence in Sweden and has established significant projects such as the smart city reference in Skellefteå municipality. The company has also seen growth in its B2B operations and has shifted its focus exclusively to B2B since the end of 2021. The company's business model, which is centred on recurring revenues, high margins, and streamlined post-implementation services, is well-established and has the potential for rapid scaling to additional cities and regions. Please refer to our supportive analysis for further details

Supportive Analysis

TH1NG continues to gain ground and is now at the forefront of IoT development in Jönköping, where 55 organisations have approved its IoT platform. We believe the recent win can be attributed to the reference city project in Skellefteå and we will follow its development closely. CEO Klas Westholm has mentioned that the rollout of deliveries in the region has started. This is a positive development, and we are encouraged that the company is starting to capitalise on its investments and that the effort and money put in to constructing the reference city is beginning to pay off.

Challenge

Fighting the giants

As an IoT platform provider, TH1NG faces competition from both large and small companies. However, TH1NG has certain competitive advantages that set it apart. Firstly, its customer-centric "pay as you grow" strategy is a highly effective way of acquiring clients. Secondly, TH1NG has established several projects and has a wide network within the Swedish IoT industry. Thirdly, the EU's stringent data regulations pose a significant obstacle for competitors based in the US.

Valuation

Current valuation does not reflect future potential

Using a fundamental DCF framework, we have derived a fair value range for TH1NG under three scenarios: base case (most likely), bear case (pessimistic), and bull case (optimistic). We have used a WACC of 14% across all scenarios. Our updated View of the company proposes a fair value range spanning from SEK0.5 to 9.8, with our base at SEK4.0. The fair value range is deliberately broad, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of TH1NG’s long-term growth and profitability. These factors centre on elements such as product composition and expansion strategies, among other variables. Our projections anticipate elevated gross margins over the long term, with a terminal EBIT margin of c18%. Notable metrics that we will closely monitor for potential adjustments include sales growth acceleration and indications of near-term scalability. These factors are pivotal in shaping our future assessments.

Quality Rating

People: 3

Business: 3

Financials: 2

Financials

Income statement
SEKm20232024e2025e2026e
Revenues27.631.761.382.7
Cost of Revenue18.820.235.945.7
Operating Expenses22.027.335.237.3
EBITDA-13.2-15.7-9.8-0.32
Depreciation0.000.000.000.00
Amortizations5.83.43.94.0
EBIT-19.5-19.1-13.8-4.3
Shares in Associates0.000.000.000.00
Interest Expenses0.27-0.04-0.04-0.04
Net Financial Items-0.190.120.120.12
EBT-19.7-19.0-13.7-4.2
Income Tax Expenses0.300.000.000.00
Net Income-20.0-19.0-13.7-4.2

Rating definitions

The team

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