Addnode: Q1 Preview – Slight Increases
Research Update
2024-04-02
06:45
Redeye slightly increases its forecasts for Q1, 2024, and 2025 – mostly due to an expected improvement in Design Management. We raise our Base Case slightly.
Fredrik Nilsson
Anton Hoof
Contents
Design Management – US AEC Showing Signs of Rebound
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| SEKm | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e | 2027e |
| Revenues | 7,412.0 | 8,680.6 | 9,674.9 | 10,645.3 | 11,697.7 |
| Revenue Growth | 19.1% | 17.1% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 9.9% |
| EBIT | 410.0 | 644.9 | 768.0 | 861.0 | 961.9 |
| EBIT Margin | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% |
| EV/Revenue | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.8 | 24.8 | 20.9 | 18.7 | 16.8 |
| EBITDA - CAPEX | 552 | 812 | 890 | 991 | 1103 |
| EBITDA - CAPEX Margin | 7.4% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% |
| EV/EBITDA - CAPEX | 22.1 | 19.7 | 18.0 | 16.3 | 14.7 |
| Net Debt | 837 | 1061 | 1129 | 1205 | 1273 |
| NWC/R12mSales | -7.3% | -5.0% | -5.0% | -5.0% | -5.0% |
Regarding our Q1 expectations for Design Management, we note a rather optimistic view from Autodesk in its fiscal Q4 2024 (published 29 February), guiding for a ~10% revenue growth in fiscal 2025 (roughly equal to Addnode’s 2024). The US AEC market has been a drag on DM’s numbers recently but has now shown signs of recovery. For example, US home builder confidence rose to the highest level since July in March. Along with us expecting a sustained solid performance in TeamD3, we forecast a rather solid Q1 in DM. However, considering the strong market and high share of 3-year deals in Q1 2023, we forecast a negative organic growth of -8%. Regarding margins, we expect 8.8% on the EBITA level, down from 10.8% in Q1 2023 but above the 7.9% seen in Q4 2023. We expect better market conditions along with some cost adjustments to drive the q/q improvement.
Disclosures and disclaimers
Contents
Design Management – US AEC Showing Signs of Rebound
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