BioInvent Q1 2024: Approaching Catalysts
Research Update
2024-04-25
07:10
Analyst Q&A
Closed
Richard Ramanius answered 7 questions.
Redeye comments on BioInvent's Q1 report 2024.
Richard Ramanius
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Investment thesis
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In March, BioInvent's partner CASI announced positive safety and a response rate of 63% in the first 8 evaluable patients in the phase I part of the study. This is in line with expectations considering the results from BioInvent' study and supports our valuation assumptions.
The share price increased from cSEK17 to a peak of cSEK24 in the month before the Q4 report. While we have no explanation for this, it appears the negative trend of the last few years may be starting to reverse. A positive momentum should mean positive catalysts, such as clinical readouts, will be better reflected in the share price, which has not really been the case recently. We expect 2024 to have some of the most important catalysts for BioInvent since becoming an oncology company.
We restate our base case of SEK83. Strong results from the phase I study of BI-1808 in combination with pembrolizumab and from the phase I study of the subcutaneous version of BI-1206 towards the middle of this year could start moving the share towards our base case, while phase IIa readouts of BI-1206 and BI-1808 towards the end of the year will be even stronger catalysts.
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Revenues | 326.2 | 71.5 | 63.6 | 753.2 | 373.5 |
Revenue Growth | 1583% | -78.1% | -11.0% | 1084% | -50.4% |
EBITDA | -50.9 | -369.9 | -464.4 | 308.1 | 44.6 |
EBIT | -50.9 | -369.9 | -464.4 | 308.1 | 44.6 |
EBIT Margin | -15.6% | -518% | -730% | 40.9% | 11.9% |
Net Income | -42.5 | -330.3 | -417.2 | 308.1 | 48.6 |
EV/EBIT | -9.6 | -1.8 | -2.4 | 2.6 | 16.8 |
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Contents
Investment thesis
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