BioInvent Q1 2024: Approaching Catalysts

Research Update

2024-04-25

07:10

Analyst Q&A

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Richard Ramanius answered 7 questions.

Redeye comments on BioInvent's Q1 report 2024.

Richard Ramanius

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New results with BI-1206 from China

In March, BioInvent's partner CASI announced positive safety and a response rate of 63% in the first 8 evaluable patients in the phase I part of the study. This is in line with expectations considering the results from BioInvent' study and supports our valuation assumptions.

Strong share price movement previous month

The share price increased from cSEK17 to a peak of cSEK24 in the month before the Q4 report. While we have no explanation for this, it appears the negative trend of the last few years may be starting to reverse. A positive momentum should mean positive catalysts, such as clinical readouts, will be better reflected in the share price, which has not really been the case recently. We expect 2024 to have some of the most important catalysts for BioInvent since becoming an oncology company.

Base case SEK83

We restate our base case of SEK83. Strong results from the phase I study of BI-1808 in combination with pembrolizumab and from the phase I study of the subcutaneous version of BI-1206 towards the middle of this year could start moving the share towards our base case, while phase IIa readouts of BI-1206 and BI-1808 towards the end of the year will be even stronger catalysts.

Key financials

SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Revenues326.271.563.6753.2373.5
Revenue Growth1583%-78.1%-11.0%1084%-50.4%
EBITDA-50.9-369.9-464.4308.144.6
EBIT-50.9-369.9-464.4308.144.6
EBIT Margin-15.6%-518%-730%40.9%11.9%
Net Income-42.5-330.3-417.2308.148.6
EV/EBIT-9.6-1.8-2.42.616.8

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